Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 23.627682 25.760843 28.074013 30.781760 33.881144 37.338051 41.513508
2025-11-16 20.300744 23.210588 26.595360 30.875306 36.218969 42.776756 51.606229
2025-11-23 17.959825 21.271717 25.334529 30.794461 38.118478 47.885055 62.422747
2025-11-30 16.213417 19.736102 24.242366 30.605983 39.675538 52.689890 73.963919
2025-12-07 14.943591 18.607524 23.462181 30.617078 41.379504 57.907704 87.511022
2025-12-14 13.873866 17.601490 22.687424 30.461398 42.721552 62.748320 101.892718
2025-12-21 13.348624 17.264707 22.773433 31.526765 46.064733 71.534037 126.803506
2025-12-28 12.527107 16.426187 22.032736 31.198476 47.025048 76.302359 145.520239
2026-01-04 11.889763 15.793133 21.523858 31.152689 48.427057 82.193829 169.647584
2026-01-11 11.416228 15.357865 21.265234 31.468008 50.505413 89.956459 203.090212
2026-01-18 10.868181 14.767956 20.709135 31.200770 51.419942 95.444090 233.715549
2026-01-25 10.399620 14.265460 20.247126 31.037835 52.499833 101.606129 271.387471
2026-02-01 9.983444 13.828673 19.875043 31.029289 53.974836 109.416342 323.759703
2026-02-08 9.569573 13.371126 19.435814 30.853480 55.083940 116.744280 383.645517
2026-02-15 9.189028 12.943465 19.014304 30.664803 56.139346 124.365715 456.923192
2026-02-22 8.833595 12.535156 18.595254 30.434392 57.062650 132.007311 545.184051
2026-03-01 8.543253 12.215796 18.306085 30.428011 58.521775 141.992548 673.768634
2026-03-08 8.251277 11.877408 17.959195 30.266737 59.574250 151.150709 825.962233
2026-03-15 8.158893 11.864572 18.188472 31.319305 63.954341 174.691522 1239.476858
2026-03-22 7.877804 11.518314 17.789142 30.992931 64.595201 184.127054 1548.637461
2026-03-29 7.653535 11.257876 17.530862 30.947102 66.018262 197.829843 2076.739466
2026-04-05 7.489773 11.093012 17.438940 31.259234 68.546431 218.391351 3134.645870
2026-04-12 7.263968 10.809873 17.106495 30.994458 69.315112 231.061583 4337.364921